Electric Vehicle EV Market Is Impossible To Forecast

Electric Vehicle Market Is Impossible To Forecast - Currently

By: Michael D Tobin

April 18, 2022

Here is my blog and audio podcast regarding EV's and combustible engine vehicles with comparisons, with reference links to follow. After years of gathering references I finally condensed them. Audio podcast, The Lookout Guy on Spreaker , link: Electric Vehicle Market Is Impossible To Forecast - Currently And here's my Podcast, The Lookout Guy on AnchorFM, link: Electric Vehicle Market Is Impossible To Forecast - Currently

How serious are the EV automakers? But how long will "the first EV boon" last? "The first EV boon," is a term I read recently in two recent articles which the EV boon wasn't even remotely the subject of one of the articles, but part of the subject of another. I will share one of those below.

I've done quite a bit of reading on the EV subject these past at least 7 years, and no article has mentioned a hint of EV's going away, except there was one article mentioning Toyota will be releasing hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2025. And I don't want EV's to go away, because they have obvious desirability based on needs of the owner. But there is a projected market share of EV's-to-combustible, though marketing is focusing on allowing the masses to believe EV's are "taking over", as so many people keep repeating over and over and over. But I can't seem to find the article that mentions specifically, the market share goal, without all the vague terms we have to get through from media and marketing. And yes, there are many sadly mistaken groups who want gas, coal and oil to go away, but some learn reality sooner than others and some learn later. Reality is as sure as an apple falling from a tree. It will definitely hit the ground. Mark my words. In your lifetime, even if you are 1 year old and have some fabulous ability to read, coal, gas and oil are not going away.

I can go on and on about battery waste, carbon-neutral, skyrocketing water and electricity costs, etc... but I'll do my best to keep this blog enjoyable and sensible. But just one more thing here before continuing; as combustible engine ownership decreases, electricity prices will increase. As weather gets hotter, water prices increase. As oil demand decreases, oil prices (PPB) decreases.

Vehicle ownership costs are designed to be at a certain level, so don't think buying an EV will put your overall costs lower than the current market of combustible engine ownership. The only benefits of owning an EV over internal combustion is FOMO and artificial intelligence conveniences. Otherwise overall monetary costs will hover plus and minus depending on maintenance and insurance costs. EV's are higher insured and gas is higher than electric. And don't forget that there's this real drag of a challenge in which EV mfg's are trying to match miles per charge to that of internal combustion vehicle's miles per tank, of around 350 miles. EV's are roughly 250 miles per charge. For us survivalists, that's not good.

OH!!! And don't forget Texas. What year was that that they had a big freeze and their electricity rates skyrocketed and people died freezing? Oh it was 2021...hmmm...a year ago. Who was charging their vehicles? And I'm a Californian, so far. Nearly all my life. I'm a LIFER here. Born in Hawaii and been here since 1 year old. My Mom's family are all San Diegan's and that's a huge family. I guess I'm a San Diego hick. And BTW, we should all know about fires, air conditioning and rolling blackouts. What a thorn-in-the-electric grid, right?

(The winter storm and outages occurred during the winter 2021 COVID-19 wave in Texas. A total of 6,484 Texans died during the seven-day period, the eighth-deadliest week during the pandemic, according to state health department data.Texas has increased the number of deaths attributed to the devastating February 2021 winter storm to 246. That's up 36 deaths from the earlier total of 210. Official death toll from Texas February 2021 winter storm climbs to 246 _

Just look at this article from, Bankrate from Feb 7, 2022, just over 2 months ago from the time I am writing: It may be difficult to avoid driving an electric car in 2022

Don't let the title fool you though. Like most articles, you have to read them and you'll often find there are hidden aspects if not for the only reason, that the author can have proof that, "they told you so," but it may have been in the second half of the 3rd sentence of the 2nd to last paragraph of a 15 paragraph article; BUT THEY DID TELL YOU SO. Here is an I-told-you-so-section in the article. But is this all they have? Future price decreases and Federal tax credits? Sounds more like, promises-promises-promises, to me. And remember what Toyota is planning that somehow made it to a national publication, that I will have below; HYDROGEN. Yeah, just wait. And remember that other excuses like inflation, tax credits and HOPEFUL cost decreases come and go, and we know what happens with promises. Here's from the article: "...Over the average 200,000 mile lifespan of their vehicle, the total cost of a gas-powered car would be $94,540, while a similar EV would cost $90,160, according to CNBC.

In addition, the sticker price of EVs is getting lower thanks to federal tax credits that can knock as much as $7,500 off the price of your vehicle. Additionally, EVs are expected to get even cheaper in the coming years thanks to battery and technology improvements. ..."

Moving on, I have a list of articles which mention terms like, "EV boom, or boon." We don't have time for dictionaries, right? I'm 58 and I do remember spelling from grade school and Junior college. It's 'boon." But bombfire still sounds better than bonfire though, and I guess the same goes for BOOM! (Batman). Wait that's POWW!.

Sorry, but I merely decided to give you a list of articles and titles, and I will continue with a unique statement from each article, and you may keep this for reference. Because I know the only people reading are those who actually do your own research.

Remember the word, 'BOON?" Also, when words like, 'transition', 'projected', 'forecast', etc... are used, realize articles are by writers, and not experts. Those words are merely for 'lack of better words or terms' as people say in conversation.

In college we learned the terms, 'extrapolate and interpolate.' The first is taking current trends and coming up with a future number based on current rate of information growing. The 2nd is taking information that has a definite goal and you may come up with a future number that has an end result, so long as something unforseen doesn't happen between point A and point B.

1. ( "...The electric vehicle industry is gearing up for a boom. Although many EV stocks have plateaued recently, there's no doubt they are the future of domestic travel. Therefore, investors are looking to the longer term. In this EV earnings season specifically, investors are keeping tabs on delivery projections. ..." from CISION PR Newswire April 13, 2022  How Lithium Shortages Could Sink the EV Transition  )

2. (Did I mention Hydrogen and Toyota yet? I just struck gold! This is the article where I saw the term used, "...first battery EV boon"... And they spelled the word correctly. How serious are the EV automakers? But how long will "the first EV boon" last? " From Nov 15, 2021 Reuters: Nov 15, 2021 — The stakes are high. "If the adoption of carbon-free fuels happens quickly, that could bring the first battery EV boom to an end," From the article: "..."The enemy is carbon, not internal combustion engines. We shouldn't just focus on one technology but make use of the technologies we already possess," Toyoda said at the track. "Carbon neutrality is not about one having a single choice, but about keeping options open." ... At the gathering in Glasgow, six major carmakers, including General Motors (GM.N), Ford Motor (F.N), Sweden's Volvo (VOLVb.ST) and Daimler AG's (DAIGn.DE) Mercedes-Benz signed a declaration to phase out fossil-fuel cars by 2040.

Toyota declined to join that group, arguing that much of the world is not ready for a shift to EVs. Another notable absence was Germany's Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE). "We don't want to be seen as an EV maker, but as a carbon-neutral company," Toyota Vice Chairman Shigeru Hayakawa told Reuters in an interview. ..." )

3. (Okay, Here is that article, from SIEMENS July 28, 2017, with a definite market percentage of EV's-to-combustible. It is a 5 year old article, but worth saving for reference. And if you, the reader have a current similar reference, be it an article or a study, please let me know:

 "... A forecast with caveats

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents 29 oil-importing industrial countries, produces bellwether forecasts that foresee electric cars phasing in slowly. Its baseline projection envisions 150 million electric vehicles on the world’s roads by 2030, or about 10 percent of all passenger vehicles at that point. In comparison, only two million electric vehicles are operating today – 0.2 percent of the 1.2 billion on the road. ..."  How electric vehicles could take a bite out of the oil market )

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